CPI’s headline number suggests calm, but beneath the surface, core inflation’s relentless 3.1% annual gain tells a different story. With shelter and healthcare costs still surging, the Fed’s path to rate cuts just got more complicated.
Summary
- U.S. CPI rose 0.2% in July, maintaining a 2.7% year-over-year rate, matching expectations.
- Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually, signaling persistent inflation.
- Energy prices fell, but rising shelter, medical, and transportation costs complicate the Fed’s rate cut plans.
The numbers came in right on cue August 12. The Labor Department’s report showed consumer prices climbing 0.2% last month and 2.7% over the past year, hitting Wall Street’s targets but hiding something more troubling underneath.
That stubborn core CPI figure , the one that ignores food and energy costs, climbed another 0.3% last month, pushing the annual rate to 3.1% as it continues to resist the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes that started nearly a year ago.
The numbers arrive at what could be a turning point, with markets still expecting a September rate cut even as inflation proves it’s not ready to throw in the towel.
Why cooling headline numbers mask deeper economic strains
While the headline CPI number suggests modest price growth, the details reveal an economy still running hot where it matters most. Energy prices fell 1.1% in July, with gasoline down 2.2%, providing temporary relief at the pump.
But this reprieve was overshadowed by persistent surges in essential services. Medical care and transportation costs each jumped 0.8%, while shelter inflation, which accounts for over a third of CPI, climbed another 0.2%. Even used cars, often seen as a bellwether for consumer demand, rose 0.5%, defying expectations of a slowdown.
The Fed’s dilemma crystallizes in these numbers. While falling energy costs may give policymakers cover to consider rate cuts, the stickiness of core inflation, particularly in labor-intensive services, suggests underlying pressures haven’t been fully tamed.
Medical care inflation, now up 4.2% year-over-year, reflects rising wages in healthcare, a sector where prices rarely retreat. Similarly, transportation services, up 6.1% annually, reveal the compounding costs of insurance, repairs, and labor shortages.
These trends complicate the Fed’s calculus: cutting rates too soon risks reigniting price surges, but holding firm could exacerbate cracks in the job market.
What does this mean for risk assets?
For risk assets, including crypto, the implications are nuanced. Bitcoin failed to rally while Dow futures gained 100 points on the softer headline print, but the market’s optimism may be premature.
Historically, crypto has thrived in environments where the Fed pivots to easing, but persistent core inflation could delay or diminish the extent of rate cuts. If the Fed opts for a “hawkish cut,” lowering rates while signaling caution, volatility could spike as traders recalibrate expectations.
