Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has revised his view of the CLARITY Act setback after Bitcoin rallied from $57,950 in July to above $80,000 before the Senate failed to advance the crypto market structure bill on Sept. 15.
Summary
- Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 before the Senate rejected CLARITY, prompting Bitwise to revise its outlook.
- The Senate rejected cloture 49-50, leaving the crypto market structure bill short of sixty votes.
- SEC and CFTC leaders say existing authority still allows additional crypto rulemaking without new legislation.
- Robinhood launched its chain, while Morgan Stanley launched Solana and Ether exchange-traded products in July.
- Bitcoin traded near $76,300 Thursday after the vote-driven selloff and Wednesday’s Fed rate increase decision.
Bitwise said in Hougan’sSept. 16 CIO memo that he no longer considers another six weeks of difficult crypto trading the most likely result after the legislation stalled, though his expectation that the current crypto rally can continue remains an investment outlook rather than a confirmed market outcome.
Hougan had previously compared the legislation to crypto’s “Punxsutawney Phil,” predicting a longer market winter if Congress failed to complete the bill. After reviewing Bitcoin’s price action and continued financial-sector product launches, he now describes the Senate setback as a “speed bump, not a roadblock.”
Bitcoin’s rally changed Hougan’s CLARITY outlook
Hougan’s revised position centers on Bitcoin’s performance while expectations for the legislation deteriorated. Bitwise data placed Bitcoin’s July 1 low near $57,950 before the asset climbed above $80,000 on Sept. 4. Over the same period, Bitwise said Polymarket pricing for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 dropped from 39% to 18%.
Hougan argued that the opposing moves weakened his earlier assumption that passage was necessary for the market recovery to continue. The price relationship does not establish that declining legislative odds caused Bitcoin’s advance, and Bitwise did not present it as proof of future performance.
The Senate then rejected cloture on the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633 on Sept. 15. The official Senate roll call recorded 49 votes in favor and 50 against, with one senator not voting. Sixty votes were required to invoke cloture and move toward debate.
The action was not a final vote on passage. Republican Sens. Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran and Thom Tillis voted against cloture. Tillis changed his vote after the outcome became clear, a procedural move that preserved the possibility of seeking reconsideration. No date for another Senate vote has been announced.
As crypto.news reported after the vote, the failure stopped the Senate from opening debate at that stage while leaving the legislation unresolved rather than formally defeated through a final passage vote.
Wall Street crypto projects continued before the Senate vote
Hougan cited several institutional developments to support his view that large financial companies have not waited for market structure legislation before building crypto products.
Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain on July 1. The company describes the network as a permissionless, Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 built for financial services and tokenized assets. Its second-quarter regulatory filing confirms that Robinhood Chain moved from its February public testnet into mainnet during July.
Robinhood paired the launch with Stock Tokens for eligible users in more than 120 countries through Robinhood Wallet. Robinhood says approximately 200 stock tokens were available by September.
Morgan Stanley’s Solana product had moved even further than an application by the time of Hougan’s memo. The SEC declared the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust registration effective on July 23, and Morgan Stanley Investment Management formally launched the MSOL product on NYSE Arca on July 28 alongside its Ether product, MSSE.
Morgan Stanley said both exchange-traded products charge a 0.14% sponsor fee and seek exposure to SOL and Ether, with staking incorporated into their structures. Crypto.news reported on the July launch, correcting earlier descriptions of Morgan Stanley as merely seeking approval for a Solana fund.
DTCC supplied another example. On July 15, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation processed live production transactions using securities converted into DTC-tokenized assets. The transactions included equity trades, U.S. Treasury and repo activity, securities lending, collateral pledges and token transfers.
DTCC said roughly 40 firms participated in the production event, which came ahead of the planned October 2026 launch of its Tokenization Service. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that participants included firms such as BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions.
SEC and CFTC rulemaking can continue without the bill
Hougan’s second argument concerns regulatory authority already held by the SEC and CFTC. He characterized the current leadership of both agencies as supportive of crypto-market development and said companies have taken comfort from that policy direction. His description of the agencies as “pro-crypto” is Bitwise’s characterization, not a statutory classification.
SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has separately said congressional legislation remains preferable because agency rules can later be changed. In an Aug. 18 statement, Atkins called legislation “indispensable” for creating rules durable enough to survive a future change in regulatory leadership.
The SEC has nevertheless started its own rulemaking. Its proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, published Aug. 18, would create tailored exemptions for certain investment-contract offerings involving crypto assets and a conditional safe harbor addressing when a crypto asset would no longer be treated as subject to an investment contract. The proposal remains open for public comment through Oct. 20 and is not a final rule.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig took a similar position after the Senate vote. In a Sept. 16 statement reported by The Block, Selig said the agency was “locked in and ready to ship its rules for the new frontier of finance” using its existing statutory authority.
The CFTC had already created an Innovation Task Force in March to work on crypto assets, blockchain, artificial intelligence and prediction markets. Selig said at the time that the group would coordinate with the SEC while developing rules within the commission’s existing mandate.
Agency authority still has limits. Hougan acknowledged that only Congress can provide the CFTC with the full spot-market jurisdiction contemplated by the CLARITY Act. Administrative rules can face court challenges and may be amended or reversed by future commissions, while legislation would create a different level of statutory permanence.
Former CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo similarly said the two agencies could continue writing rules within existing authority while Congress remains divided.
Bitcoin fell after the vote as macro pressure increased
Markets reacted negatively immediately after the Senate action. Reuters reported Bitcoin falling roughly 4% to around $75,908, while Coinbase and Circle shares dropped close to 9% as investors reacted to the failure to advance the bill.
Crypto derivatives markets recorded another layer of selling. Crypto.news reported that exchanges liquidated roughly $571 million in long positions over 24 hours, including close to $190 million each in Bitcoin and Ether longs.
Hougan said the legislative result was not the only factor affecting prices. His memo cited interest-rate and oil concerns as possible contributors to the decline, while describing additional volatility as a risk to his bullish investment thesis.
The macro backdrop changed again on Sept. 16 when the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Reuters reported that the unanimous decision came as policymakers responded to persistent inflation and rising energy costs, with most officials projecting at least one more increase during 2026.
By Sept. 17, CoinGecko showed Bitcoin near $76,274, up roughly 0.5% over 24 hours but down around 2.1% over seven days. The price remained well above Bitwise’s $57,950 July starting point while trading below the early-September level above $80,000.
Hougan’s expectation that the crypto bull market can continue without the CLARITY Act remains Bitwise’s market forecast. The SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal is still accepting comments through Oct. 20, while the Senate has not scheduled another cloture vote on H.R. 3633.
