Bitcoin’s short-term price performance will largely be influenced by Friday’s U.S. jobs report and a continued increase in ETF inflows, according to Bitfinex analysts.
Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $125,000 by the end of June if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable, analysts told crypto.news on June 5. The primary catalyst in the near term is Friday’s non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a slowdown in employment.
Current forecasts for new non-farm payrolls range between 125,000 and 130,000 — down from April’s 177,000. Bitfinex analysts believe that a weaker-than-expected print would be bullish for Bitcoin, as it could accelerate the Federal Reserve’s timeline for interest rate cuts, a move generally favorable for risk assets like BTC.
“We believe if Bitcoin maintains support above $105,000, it could target the $120,000–$125,000 range in June. This will not be catalysed just from the labour market but it could be a domino in multiple catalysts prompting the Fed to cut rates at a faster than expected pace,” Bitfinex analysts.
Still, a stronger-than-expected jobs report could make rate cuts less likely. This would strengthen the dollar, but hurt Bitcoin and other crypto assets. In any case, the effects of the jobs data will trickle down to other Bitcoin price catalysts. This includes ETF inflows, which will be influenced by rate cuts and the strength of the dollar.
Jobs data remains in focus for Bitcoin’s price
Investor sentiment remains divided ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, given the mixed signals from earlier labor market data. For instance, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed strength, with job openings climbing to 7.39 million, up from 7.2 million in March.
On the other hand, ADP private payrolls came in significantly below expectations, posting just 37,000 new jobs versus the anticipated 110,000. The breakdown revealed that small businesses shed 13,000 jobs, and large firms cut 3,000, while midsized companies added 49,000.
While the U.S. labor market remains resilient, employers are concerned about the potential negative effects of the U.S. tariffs on its major trading partners.
