Crypto winter since Jan 2025, masked by ETF demand, now nearing late-stage exhaustion.
Summary
- wise CIO Matt Hougan labels current market a full crypto winter starting January 2025, not a standard correction.
- Institutional buyers, including ETFs and digital asset treasuries, snapped up over 744,000 BTC, cushioning prices yet failing to reverse declining sentiment.
- Hougan points to history, macro growth, CLARITY Act progress, and potential sovereign Bitcoin moves as catalysts for eventual recovery from late-stage winter conditions.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has characterized the current cryptocurrency market conditions as a full-scale bear market that began in January 2025, according to a recent report released by the executive.
Hougan stated in the analysis that the downturn represents more than a routine pullback, describing the environment as a crypto winter comparable to previous downturns experienced in 2018 and 2022. The executive attributed the decline to excessive leverage accumulated during the prior cycle and substantial profit-taking by long-term cryptocurrency holders.
The report addressed the persistence of declining prices despite positive industry developments, including expanding institutional involvement, regulatory improvements, and broader adoption. According to Hougan, such positive news typically fails to impact prices during the deepest phases of bear markets.
Market sentiment indicators support the bearish assessment, the report noted. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains near historically high levels of fear, according to the analysis.
Historical data cited in the report shows previous crypto winters have lasted approximately 13 months. Bitcoin (BTC) reached its peak in December 2017 before bottoming one year later, and peaked again in October 2021 before hitting a low point in November 2022, according to market data.
Matt Hougan says crypto winter is omnipresent
Hougan argued in the report that institutional inflows partially obscured the market weakness that began in January 2025. The analysis stated that exchange-traded funds and Digital Asset Treasuries collectively purchased more than 744,000 Bitcoin during the period examined, representing significant buying pressure. The report suggested that without this institutional support, Bitcoin’s price could have declined by as much as 60%.
The report identified several potential catalysts for market recovery, including strong global economic growth that could reignite risk appetite, progress on the CLARITY Act, early signs of sovereign Bitcoin adoption, or the passage of time.
Hougan noted in the analysis that the current market sentiment of fatigue and negative outlook resembles the final stages of past crypto winters, according to his assessment of multiple market cycles.
