Last week, Donald Trump’s delay on European tariffs marked the return of the bullish rally on gold, and this week, the escalation of war between Ukraine and Russia, has further brought buying pressure in gold.
Gold is now comfortably trading over $3350, and aiming for $3400 and possibly a new all-time high above $3500 as well.
Similar to last week, the bias is gold is buy, upon retracement to specific levels. Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this XAUUSD weekly forecast of June 2nd to June 6th, 2025.
Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news
In the previous week’s forecast we gave a 4h zone as high probability for buys, which was from $3260-$3208. Price is now up 1100 points from that zone and has the potential to run to $3400 and beyond.
Other levels shared in the last week’s forecast have not hit yet, but they remain valid, so do keep an eye out for them as well.
Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.
Key economic events of this week
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Monday, June 2nd
A higher-than-expected PMI may strengthen the USD and put downward pressure on gold. Gold prices would probably be supported by a weak reading.
Powell may suggest aggressive policy or rate rises, which would cause the USD to rise and drive gold lower. Usually, gold would be lifted by dovish remarks.
Tuesday, June 3
Increased job vacancies indicate a strong labor market, which would strengthen the USD and depress gold. Lower values might have the reverse effect.
Wednesday, June 4
- ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Strong ADP data indicates labor strength, which weighs on gold and increases the USD. On the basis of recession fears, a miss might lead to gold buying.
Excellent services PMI supports bearish gold sentiment, optimistic USD sentiment, and economic resilience. The demand for gold is supported by a lower reading.
Thursday, June 5
Gold may suffer from fewer claims, which show the strength of labor. Growing claims may indicate economic strain and raise the price of gold.
Friday, June 6
- Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Increased salaries indicate inflationary pressure, which could lead to Fed tightening bets (bearish on gold, bullish on the USD).
- Non-Farm Employment Change
Gold declines and the dollar rises when the NFP report is strong. Weak numbers increase recession fears and are frequently positive for gold.
A decrease in unemployment is both good for the USD and bad for gold. Gold as a safe haven is usually supported by an increase.
Gold HTF Overview
After sweeping liquidity below $3200 level, gold has turned bullish and still targeting the same external liquidities of $3435 and $3500 respectively. Invalidation of this trade idea would be the break of $3120 level in the weekly timeframe.
Gold Forecast for June 2nd to June 6th
Gold is showing bullish momentum in all lower time frames which makes buying an ideal position to enter and hold.
In the 1 hour timeframe the strongest buying level is coming up at the weekly open, opening gap, and 1 hour structure level of $3303-3295.
On the 30m timeframe there is an immediate buying opportunity as well from the levels of $3325-3336. This is due to the 30 min FVG, and structure level.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for buys in the lower time frame levels and the higher time frame levels as well. Selling is not recommended this week, as the risk to reward ratio may not be favorable for traders.
Support Levels
- $3325-3336 – 30m structure level and FVG
- $3303-3295 – 1hr structure level, weekly open, and opening gap
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