Bitcoin and most altcoins showed mixed performance in the first five months of the year, with Bitcoin reaching a record high twice.
Bitcoin (BTC) initially jumped to a record high of $109,300 in January and set a new one at $111,900 in May.
Other meme coins initially surged in January following the launch of Official Trump (TRUMP), but retreated over the first quarter. Most staged a strong recovery in April, with some soaring more than 200% from their lowest levels this year.
The question is whether Bitcoin and other altcoins will continue rising in June, or if a new crypto winter is about to start.
Historically, June is usually one of the worst months in the crypto market. Most cryptocurrencies drop during the month, while volume typically slips as many investors take a summer holiday break.
The average Bitcoin return in June since 2013 is minus 0.34%, while the median is minus 0.23%. This makes it the worst month after September. Also, Bitcoin has posted negative returns in June in most years since 2013.
Ethereum’s performance in June is also not encouraging, as it has had a negative return in most years. Its average return since 2016 is minus 6.8%, its worst month of the year.
Therefore, if history repeats itself, a crypto winter may likely occur in June. This period is characterized by falling or stalling prices and reduced trading activity. It is also marked by a neutral fear and greed index.
Bitcoin price action to determine crypto winter
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, will determine whether the crypto winter happens. A strong surge to new record highs may lead to renewed demand for altcoins, including meme coins.
The daily chart shows that BTC has pulled back from its all-time high of $111,900 in May to $104,000. This pullback is likely part of the handle formation in a cup-and-handle pattern, a common continuation setup.
The cup has a depth of about 32%, suggesting the coin may eventually surge to over $144,600. This target is derived by measuring the same distance from the upper side of the cup.
Therefore, Bitcoin may drive a crypto winter as it continues forming the handle section. If this occurs, most altcoins may continue falling in June. Fortunately, due to the cup-and-handle pattern, the crypto winter will likely give way to a crypto spring once Bitcoin rebounds.
