U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order on crypto, coupled with an overall regulatory pivot in the United States, could break Bitcoin’s four-year cycle.
That’s the view of Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset manager Bitwise. The Bitwise executive shared his outlook in a note published on Jan. 29.
“Specifically, I’ve been wondering if the recent change in Washington’s attitude toward crypto is a big enough catalyst to “break” the four-year cycle and extend crypto’s current bull market into 2026 and beyond,” Hougan wrote.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
Historically, Bitcoin (BTC) has followed a four-year cycle, with three years of general upward price movement in a bull market, followed by a pullback. This pattern played out in 2014 after the Mt. Gox collapse, in 2018 amid the Securities and Exchange’s ICO crackdown, and in 2022 following the Terra ecosystem’s collapse.
In this case, the 2022 bear market paved the way for a “great 2023 and 2024”.
“If we were following the classic four-year cycle, 2025 would be a great year for crypto. And I think it will be: We’re on the record predicting that bitcoin’s price will double this year to above $200,000, driven by flows into ETFs and bitcoin purchases by corporations and governments. That may turn out to be conservative,” Hougan noted.
Crypto’s current cycle, coming after the painful pullback that saw contagion decimate sentiment, got its catalyst from Grayscale’s victory against the SEC.The legal win accelerated the eventual approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.
BTC price rose from around $22k at the time of Grayscale’s argument against SEC in court to hit all-time highs above $100k in 2024.
Trump and the crypto executive order
Trump’s victory in November to become the 47th U.S. president added to this bullish momentum. But could the policy shift in Washington under a pro-crypto Trump administration break Bitcoin’s four-year cycle?
Hougan believes it could.
He points out that early signs suggest the potential for a painful bear market, following historical patterns of excessive leveraging in overheated markets. However, Trump’s crypto executive order, signed in the first week of his return to the White House, could change this trajectory.
According to Hougan, the order signals the “full mainstreaming of crypto” amid several other positive developments. One key shift is the potential regulatory framework that could allow banks to fully enter the crypto custody market, boosting Wall Street’s confidence in digital assets.
A national digital assets stockpile is another big factor to consider. Taken together, the EO hints at a scenario that could see trillions of dollars flow into crypto.
Maybe not in 2026
According to the Bitwise CIO, the anticipated positive effects of Trump’s executive order and other factors may take years to materialize. That means the market cannot rule out another crypto winter in 2026.
“My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan concluded.
