Crypto prices were mixed in the first half of the year, with Bitcoin surging to a record high and most altcoins experiencing double-digit declines.
This performance was largely due to Donald Trump’s trade wars, which eroded regulatory clarity in the US. Still, four key catalysts could trigger a crypto bull run in the year’s second half.
Bitcoin price breakout could stir a crypto bull run
The first main catalyst that could ignite a crypto bull run is Bitcoin’s (BTC) breakout. The daily chart above shows that it has formed a giant cup-and-handle pattern, and is now in its final stage.
This cup has a depth of about 30%, meaning that the coin could soar to over $140,000 in the coming months. This target is derived by measuring the same distance from the cup’s upper side.
Bitcoin price has also formed a bullish flag pattern, which is made up of a vertical line and a downward channel. Like the C&H, the bullish flag pattern leads to a strong breakout.
The other catalyst is that Bitcoin is about to break above the ascending trendline that connects the highest swings since December 2017. Moving above that level will likely lead to more upside.
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts
The other potential catalyst for the next crypto bull run will come from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to start cutting rates later this year.
Most economists expect the bank to start easing in the September meeting if inflation remains contained. In a statement on Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the bank will deliver three cuts this year and more in 2026.
Morgan Stanley analysts are more dovish, estimating that the bank will cut rates seven times next year. Their belief is that the next Fed Chair will be more inclined to slash rates than Jerome Powell.
Cryptocurrencies and other risky assets often do well when the Fed is cutting rates. This hope partly explains why the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Indices have soared to a record high.
Crypto ETF approvals
The other main catalyst for the next crypto bull run is the potential ETF approvals by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Polymarket odds for the approval of top ETFs, such as Solana (SOL), Litecoin (LTC), and Ripple (XRP), have remained elevated.
ETF approvals will be bullish for the crypto market because of the potential inflows from Wall Street investors. For example, Bitcoin ETF inflows have jumped by nearly $50 billion, while Ethereum ETFs have crossed the $4 billion milestone.
US M2 growth
Finally, the crypto bull run could be influenced by the rising US money supply. Data shows that the M2 figure has jumped to a record high of $21.8 trillion. This growth will likely continue now that Congress is set to approve Donald Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill, which will lead to more budget deficits.
Bitcoin price has a close correlation with the US M2 money supply because of its supply cap of 21 million.
