Polymarket bettors predicted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would resign by the end of the week, but local media outlets believe his exit may happen sooner.
Canadian newspapers The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail published reports forecasting Trudeau’s resignation between Jan. 6 and Jan. 8, while Polymarket users placed their bets opted on Jan. 10. Reports indicate that Trudeau has not yet made a final decision on the timing of his departure.
The Toronto Star reported that Trudeau may step down as early as Monday, Jan. 6, contesting The Globe and Mail’s initial scoop. According to The Globe and Mail, the Prime Minister is expected to announce his resignation just before a scheduled Liberal Party meeting on Wednesday, Jan. 8.
Per Polymarket betting odds, Trudeau’s resignation will likely occur by the end of the week. The platform’s data showed an 82% chance that he would step down by Friday, Jan. 10, and a 72% probability of a Jan. 8 announcement. Users viewed Jan. 6 as the least likely date for his resignation, with only a 26% probability.
Polymarket’s relevance in political outcomes catapulted last year, lifted by popular contracts tied to the U.S. General Elections. Its users accurately predicted a win for President Donald Trump, earning FBI scrutiny on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan and a DOJ investigation for suspected U.S. user participation.
Coplan’s Polygon-based protocol became a hotbed for election wagering, generating over $9 billion in trading volume across multiple contracts.
