Bitcoin price prediction favors a retest of the $60,000 level after losing $65,000 support amid macro tensions and weakening sentiment.
Summary
- BTC is down 27% in 30 days and has posted five straight monthly declines.
- $65K support has broken, putting $60K in focus.
- CME futures positioning shows large traders reducing short exposure.
Bitcoin was trading at $64,846 at press time, down 4.6% in the past 24 hours. The asset has slipped 5% over the last week and is down 27% in the past 30 days.
Bitcoin (BTC) has now declined for five straight months since setting its all-time high in October last year, according to CoinGlass data. If losses continue through month-end, this would mark the second-longest monthly losing streak in Bitcoin’s history.
Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell four points to 5, placing it deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone.
Macro pressure keeps $60,000 in focus
Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, told Bloomberg that the crypto market remains fragile, with traders closely watching the $60,000 support level. She pointed to rising tensions involving Iran and uncertainty around new U.S. tariffs as key pressure points.
Over the weekend, President Donald Trump raised a proposed global tariff rate from 10% to 15% via Truth Social. The move came after the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated previous emergency tariffs imposed under IEEPA.
Then, claiming balance-of-payments issues, Trump re-imposed tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The policy change unsettled broader markets.
Traditional safe havens like gold and silver responded more favorably than risk-sensitive assets like cryptocurrency. Bitcoin still trades more like a high-beta risk asset than a defensive hedge in the current climate.
Meanwhile, Rachael Lucas, analyst at BTC Markets, said Bitcoin would need to reclaim $70,000 to restore bullish momentum. Analysts had identified $65,000 as a key psychological and technical support level.
That level has now been breached. A sustained move below it increases the probability of a retest of $60,000.
On-chain data from Glassnode adds to the bearish sentiment. The seven-day EMA of Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss sits near -$480 million, after plunging to -$1.24 billion on Feb. 6.
While realized losses have eased from peak capitulation levels, the market remains sell-side dominant. Glassnode noted that investor capitulation is still unfolding as Bitcoin works through a broader bottoming process.
Futures positioning hints at possible base formation
There are early signs that institutional positioning may be shifting. A recent report from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that large traders in CME Bitcoin futures reduced short exposure significantly.
Net positioning moved from roughly +1,000 contracts a month ago to -1,600 contracts recently, suggesting some institutional players may have flipped from net short to net long. Last April saw a similar change in positioning, which was followed by a 70% increase in Bitcoin prices.
Analysts warn that positioning data by itself does not prove a bottom, though. The risk of a decline could reach $40,000 if important support fails.
