Around $2.96 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on Friday, June 14, potentially injecting volatility into already fragile crypto markets.
According to data from Deribit, the contracts, scheduled to expire at 08:00 UTC, represent one of the largest expiries this quarter. The open interest includes nearly equal amounts of calls and puts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.95. This suggests a slightly bullish bias, though the current spot price, hovering around $104,000, sits well below the max pain point of $107,000.
The max pain level is where option holders feel the most financial loss and often acts as a magnetic level in the final trading hours before expiry. Ethereum (ETH) options worth $678 million are also due to expire. Unlike Bitcoin (BTC), ETH’s put-to-call ratio sits at a more bearish 1.23, reflecting traders hedging downside risk after recent declines.
Options are derivative contracts that grant traders the right, but not the obligation, to purchase (call) or sell (put) an asset at a fixed price. Spot prices may be impacted as traders unwind hedges or roll positions when large volumes of options expire. During these times, price frequently moves toward the maximum pain level, particularly in markets with low volume.
The current expiry coincides with pressure on Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market as a whole. The total value of the cryptocurrency market has dropped 7% to $3.3 trillion, and Bitcoin has lost over 5% in the last day. Analysts point to Israel’s attack on Iran as the cause of the macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical unrest.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is beginning to show early signs of a trend shift. The price has slipped below the 20-day moving average, which is often used to predict short-term direction. A decline in bullish momentum is indicated by the relative strength index’s trend below the neutral 50 mark. Although volume has slightly increased, it is still insufficient to validate a complete bearish breakdown.
A short squeeze might be triggered if Bitcoin maintains above $101,000 and recovers $105,000 before expiration, which could push the price back toward $107,000, the maximum pain level and important resistance.
Further declines could be possible if there is a clear break below $101,000, with $97,800 and $95,000 serving as potential support levels. A decline through those areas might signal a more significant correction.
